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Food Delivery Tech: a Deep Dive

Written on March 10, 2017 by Yoram Wijngaarde

This report is a free slide-deck produced by the Dealroom team, with invaluable data contributions from Priori Data, the Berlin-based leading mobile market intelligence company.

It combines proprietary data from Dealroom and Priori Data with annual reports, investor presentations and equity research about Just Eat, Takeaway.com and Rocket Internet, plus SimilarWeb online traffic data.

Food Delivery Tech Deep Dive

If you have any questions regarding this report or to find out how we can help you with data, intelligence or bespoke research, please do not hesitate to contact us. Contact details are provided inside the report.

FinTech in Europe: any signs of Brexit impact?

Written on March 2, 2017 by Yoram Wijngaarde

FinTech Report

The UK government just published its Digital Strategy document, outlining how it plans to support the UK tech industry post-Brexit.

Has there been a measurable Brexit induced slowdown in UK tech so far? A few reasons for the timing of this post about Fintech and Brexit. First, we are now well into 2017. Second, fintech is a special case, given London’s central role in the EU as financial hub. Third, this BBC post contains some convincing warning signs, both anecdotal and supported with data.

Time for a snapshot of fintech in Europe, using Dealroom Data until Feb 2017, with a focus on the UK vs. the rest of Europe.

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There seems to be no significant measurable impact on funding levels so far. But the anecdotal signs need to be taken very seriously. Brexit (and more specifically, policies or sentiment impeding science and immigration) will especially have potential ramifications for innovation over the medium to long term.

Momondo acquisition by Priceline: a closer look

Written on February 14, 2017 by Yoram Wijngaarde

Momondo Group was sold to Priceline, owner of rival Kayak, in a $550 million deal. The two Momondo Group brands, Momondo and Cheapflights, will fall under the Kayak division. Another impressive European travel tech success story, made even more impressive by the fact that Momondo underwent major strategic transformations during its development (acquisition, merger and strategic shift by Cheapflights into meta-search).

SkyscannerMomondo3

Growth investor Great Hill owned a majority stake of about 60% in Momondo Group since October 2014. Great Hill’s entry valuation was about $210 million; this implies a value increase of 2.6x in $ terms. In 2 years and 4 months, that’s a roughly 49% annual return, driven by both Momondo’s consistent revenue growth and a large multiple expansion (2.8x LTM revenue at entry vs. 5.0x at exit).

Momondo’s valuation multiples are in line with most similar transactions and with Trivago’s public multiples, post its IPO. However, Momondo’s valuation multiples are below Skyscanner’s, which was acquired by CTrip in Nov last year in a £1.4 billion deal. Both companies have similar EBITDA margins of around 20-25%. And both companies have had roughly similar growth trajectories in the last twelve months. The discrepancy in multiples may be related to some or all of the following factors:

  • Scale: Skyscanner is 1.5x larger in term of net revenues, therefore receives a market leader premium
  • Brand: Skyscanner is a single brand while Momondo Group operates multiple smaller brands (CheapFlights)
  • Model: Cheapflights only recently transitioned to metasearch
  • Buyer: Chinese acquirer being seemingly less price sensitive

Travel tech saw many exits and funding rounds recently. Most of them (if not all) had been previously tipped as “to watch” in our Travel Tech Deep Dive report (free download). So you’ll want to check that out!

Also check the complete data table of travel search and travel deal companies.

Notes:

  • LTM = last twelve months
  • Thanks to Yannick Roux for providing some valuable input!
  • Great Hill return based on public info and excludes impact from financial leverage

Artificial intelligence in Europe: over 1,150 companies and €1.4 billion funding in 2016

Written on February 13, 2017 by Yoram Wijngaarde

Artificial intelligence (AI) will soon be part of nearly every company’s technology stack (proprietary or not) and ingrained in every industry. It is therefore becoming increasingly difficult (and senseless) to draw the line between AI and non-AI. But while we still can, it is interesting to reflect on the state of Artificial Intelligence in Europe.

Here’s a data table with 1,150 companies with proprietary AI technology that’s core to their business. Of them over 525 companies are VC funded.

In 2016, 330 AI related companies got funded, an increase of 25%. Total European funding in 2016 exceeded €1.4 billion, an increase of 26%.

AI funding

Also available in map view:

AImap
A big thanks to Ha Duong who’s work we were able to leverage, via Tech.eu: 600+ European AI tech startups to watch.

Below interactive grid view shows AI companies by growth stage and industry:

AI Grid

A deep-dive report is coming soon.

Nordics snapshot (presentation)

Written on December 11, 2016 by Yoram Wijngaarde

Both France and Sweden have been on fire this year. The Nordics are known for creating several tech icons (examples at bottom of this article). The below image opens a short presentation on high-level venture capital trends in the Nordic region.

TitleNordics

More on this in our full 2016 update!

Other useful Nordics info:

Selected Nordic tech icons

£1.4B Skyscanner acquisition: a closer look

Written on November 26, 2016 by Yoram Wijngaarde

Chinese online travel agent CTrip acquired Skyscanner at a valuation of £1.4B, predominantly in cash. That’s roughly 12x 2015 revenues, 64x 2015 normalised EBITDA. We estimate that on an LTM basis (last twelve months) the multiples are around 10x LTM revenues and 50x LTM EBITDA; a great achievement for Skyscanner’s founders and investors.

How does this transaction compare with others in travel and in tech? Time for a closer look. Download the 3-page slide deck, or continue reading below for additional insights.

How do the multiples compare?

In November 2012, Priceline paid significantly less for closest peer Kayak: 23.8x LTM EBITDA and 5.7x LTM revenues. Kayak was at the time growing at a very similar growth rate of 30%.

In December 2012, Skyscanner’s valuation multiples are similar to Trivago’s multiples back in December 2012. Back then, Trivago had been growing much faster: at about 100% per year.

What is Skyscanner’s current growth rate? Last reported revenues were only growing at 28% from 2014 to 2015. However, Skyscanner’s gross bookings were still growing 49% in 2015. Therefore, if Skyscanner’s margins did not deteriorate in 2016, then revenue growth could well have accelerated again during 2016.

Upside potential

Meta-search continues to be a strong segment. Flight meta-search specifically is benefiting from regional fragmentation of flight OTAs (online travel agents). Skyscanner is testing a direct distribution model with airlines, thus becoming a quasi-OTA. An OTA’s take-rate adds up to 5-10%, whereas for Skyscanner the CPA is as low as 2%.

And no doubt, CTrip sees opportunities for revenue synergies (e.g. tapping into Asia growth, adding hotel inventory), thus justifying the seemingly high acquisition multiple.

Slide2

Skyscanner is teh seventh largest VC backed exit, providing super returns for it’s investors. Skyscanner also ranks 25th in term of European tech acquisitions (in total we counted 36 acquisitions above €1 billion).

Skyscanner3

Looking forward

Travel remains a very exciting space where plenty of strategic activity and disruptions will continue to take place. To get you started, here is a table of top funded travel companies.

As mentioned above, meta-search (aka comparison) continues to be a strong segment, in both flights and accommodations. Below is a list of leading travel comparison companies from seed stage to late growth stage.

Travel comparison companies

Dealroom data used for this post

Finally, check out our July 2016 Travel Research report (free download) with much, much more information.

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European Food Tech: a Recap

Written on October 16, 2016 by Yoram Wijngaarde

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It’s been two weeks since the IPO of Takeaway.com, the Dutch food delivery logistics service. Europe now has several public and private well-funded food tech companies. This makes researching and benchmarking the sector all the more interesting. Time for a recap of European food tech.

Since 2011, about €4 billion has been invested in European food tech (takeout, delivery, shopping, production, restaurant reviews and table bookings).  The largest food tech rounds occurred mostly in 2014 and 2015, after which the market consolidated (to an extent) and focused on execution.

This excludes capital raised by global transport and logistics players such as Uber, Amazon (and Google).

Raising Capital: Public or Private Track?

Traditionally, a core argument for going public was access to capital. Nowadays, it is far from clear whether public or private companies have easier access to large amounts of growth capital. Based on the below chart, comparing total funding, private companies have had more access to capital.

Food Funding Chart

The recent announcement of a potential $100 billion mega-fund by SoftBank and Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund further underscored the point that private capital is abundant. Therefore, the remaining rationale for going public is to provide liquidity to existing shareholders; something to consider for investors in public tech stocks!

Valuation Data

Takeaway.com’s IPO priced at €23 per share. Currently the stock is trading around €24 (market cap is around €1 billion). By comparison, UK firm Just Eat went public in April 2014 at a valuation of GBP 1.5 billion and is currently valued at GBP 3.7 billion. Just Eat currently trades at roughly 9.5x 2016 Revenues and 32x 2016 EBITDA. Takeaway.com is similarly priced at around 10x 2016 revenues.

There have been several acquisitions in food tech. Transaction multiple data is sparse, but this data table contains transaction multiples sorted by revenue multiple.

Preliminary Performance Data

The below chart shows the relative market position of key players in Takeaway.com’s markets based on web visits only (as per SimilarWeb). A few takeaways (no pun intended) from this map:

  • UK is by far the largest market, more than twice the size of Germany, Austria and Switzerland combined (and seems to have matured most).
  • Takeaway.com leads in Benelux and is a significant player in Germany (but not a leader in any large market)
  • Deliveroo is overtaking smaller players in many markets and well on its way achieving scale in its markets

We will soon follow up with more data in additional markets. We will also be comparing mobile app data. Once Takeaway.com comes out of its so called blackout period we will be able to review equity research as well, which will help us to compare more data.

map

Finally, below a list of selected European Food Tech leaders. Adjacent categories also include merchant tools (restaurant payments such as Velocity, loyalty such as Zenchef) and AgriTech.

All Food Tech data in this post:

Food Tech in Europe

500 companies in AI and Machine Learning

Written on October 9, 2016 by Yoram Wijngaarde

2016-10-14

Spanish Artificial Intelligence recruitment platform source{d} completed a $6 million series-A round. The founding team were previously behind Tyba. Source{d} does algorithmic matching of developer skills with development needs, by analysing the code of over 7.5 million developers, likely using repositories such as Github.

But there is much more AI activity in Europe. Here are 500 companies in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning.

Who’d we miss? Let us know.

By the way, it won’t be long before this list becomes obsolete, as almost every tech company will somehow apply AI in their technology stack. Once that happens, we will need to think of a different way to approach research.

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Trivago gets ready to IPO

Written on September 11, 2016 by Yoram Wijngaarde

Screenshot (4)

Expedia is moving ahead with exploring an IPO of Trivago, it’s hotel meta-search unit (Reuters), and started rounding up investment banks. Expedia acquired a 62% stake in Trivago in December 2012 for about $ 650M ($1 billion valuation). Expedia will not sell any shares in the IPO, but the Trivago founders (38%) will exit.

A successful investment by Expedia

Expedia paid a hefty acquisition multiple in December 2012 of 8x revenues and 56x EBITDA (both LTM).  The acquisition was part of a push by Expedia to expand its presence in Europe in its rivalry with Priceline / Booking. Trivago’s revenues have grown by more than 5x in the last 4 years; that’s about a 53% cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR). In Q2 2016 Trivago reported 40% YoY growth. In the last 4 quarters combined, Trivago posted revenues of $ 660M and EBITDA of $ 22M.

Trivago

Expedia is expecting to float $1 billion of stock, implying a total valuation of around $2.6 billion. This would be a 2.6x increase versus the $1 billion valuation in December 2012 and implies roughly a 25% annual increase in value. The multiples at IPO would be roughly 3-4x revenues and roughly 27x 2017 EBITDA. To see how these multiples compare with other public travel companies check out Dealroom’s valuation page of the Trivago profile.

So why the IPO?

Likely, the Trivago founders had negotiated a right to pursue exit via IPO if Expedia would not buy them out within a certain time-frame. Expedia did not exercise its right to buy the founders out. This could be because Expedia is satisfied with its majority stake (it already controls and consolidates Trivago). Expedia thus prefers to use its cash for new investment opportunities. If successful, the IPO could create another $1 billion liquidity event for the Trivago founders. This is on top of the € 434M in cash and the remaining $ 200M or so in Expedia stock received in 2012 (in the meantime, the Expedia stock also roughly doubled in value).

Will Trivago be a good investment?

Clearly Trivago’s financial performance has been impressive. Hotel meta-search generally has continued to be on the rise. As our recent Travel deep-dive noted: consumers now look to compare across all types of accommodations, not just hotels. And Booking.com’s forced abandonment of price parity clauses means price comparison becomes more useful for consumers, as single properties may offer different prices on various sites. Trivago also started to experiment with Direct Connect, its direct booking platform for hoteliers. Direct Connect allows hoteliers to bid for direct bookings on CPA basis instead of paying commissions (Booking.com model).

On the other hand, meta-search has become very crowded, as search technology has become easier to replicate. Also, there are some intra-company expenses with Expedia which are not completely straightforward to understand for outsiders.

More big travel exits on the horizon

Trivago is not the only European online travel company likely to seek an exit. Check out the below list of other sizable travel companies which may be ripe for an exit or other strategic move soon.

Medium sized tour operators: potential exit

Oakley Capital exits Parship Elite Group, making a 150% return

Written on September 10, 2016 by Yoram Wijngaarde

Screenshot

Sixteen months ago, private equity firm Oakley Capital made a contrarian move by acquiring online matchmaking service Parship from Holtzbrinck Digital. A few weeks later it also acquired Elite Partner, to create Parship Elite Group.

Now, ProsiebenSat1 Media acquired just over 50% in Parship Elite Group, for €100M. Parship was valued at €300M and had €100M in debt which means €200M in equity value. Prosieben also will replace the €100M loans with preferred capital.

Oakley Capital will receive about €129M in cash, realising a cash return of 2.3x in 16 months. Including the remaining 50% stake, the implied total return is 3.6x, which is equal to a 150% annual return on investment.

Last year, Oakley also sold price comparison website Verivox to ProsiebenSat1.

NOAH Advisors advised Oakley on the sale, after also having advised price comparison website Facile on its sale to Oakley Capital.

Pro tip: dealroom tracks over 230 companies in the online dating and matchmaking space, from early stage disruptors to late stage incumbents.